22 September, 2015 - Raincoat Needs

22 September 2015

Dear Brother and Sister Jewkes,

We all send our best wishes to you from the California Riverside Mission!  Pres. Mullen and I feel so blessed to serve with your amazing sons and daughters.  They are taking the gospel to many people. This week sixteen people were baptized.

September is usually the hottest month of the year here in southern California.  Though winter seems a long way off, we need to do some advance planning.  As you may have read, an El Nino effect has been setting up in the Pacific Ocean this summer.  The effect is so strong forecasters are 95% certain we will have a very wet winter in California.  In fact, rain comparable to 1998 has been forecast for this part of the state.  That winter in Riverside County more rain fell than any of the previous 100+ years that records were kept!  If you would like to read more about El Nino, we have included the September 10 update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at the end of this letter.

Since we have had so little experience with rain here in Riverside County we contacted a mission president’s wife in Washington where rain is common.  Here is the clothing that their missionaries wear to be prepared for rain:

Elders:

- *Breathable waterproof jacket with hood (Solid color:  black, taupe or navy)---long (A longer jacket provides more coverage.  However, a full-length coat is too long should the elder be assigned to a bicycle area.)

- No umbrella (They preferred using the hood of their coat.)

- Rain overshoes (rubber shoe covers) Totes makes these.  About $20 a pair OR waterproof shoes (not hiking boots).

- Breathable waterproof pants (for bike elders or others who may want them.  Do not buy these now if your son is currently on a bike.  That may change by the time the rain comes.)

Sisters:

- *Breathable waterproof skirt-length coat with hood.  (For January and February sisters will not be assigned to bike areas because of the difficulty of staying dry with skirts.)

- Umbrella if desired.

- Knee length black rubber boots.  These do not pull on over shoes but are worn instead of shoes OR overshoes.

*Breathable:  not plastic or PVC.  Fabric should keep rain out but allow body moisture to escape.  Plastic keeps the missionary damp inside the coat; this means he or she is cold.

While it will be a cold winter for California, it will not be Utah or Illinois cold.  Coats do not need to be heavy.  They can be layered over sweaters.   It rained last week and quite a few of our elders and sisters had no coat and no umbrella.  If you have sent coats and umbrellas and overshoes, do not go out a buy different gear. Let’s see how the rain goes.  If you haven’t sent rain gear with your missionary you might look at the suggestions above.

We realize this is an expense at a time of year when additional expenses are difficult and we are sorry for that.  We felt, however, that you would want to know what is coming so your missionary can be prepared.

We are two weeks from transfers.  PLEASE ship boxes to the Mission Office so that they do not arrive at an apartment where your missionary no longer lives.  We are now hand delivering mail from the office to the missionaries.  This should eliminate lost items.

Thank you for continuing to support of your missionary.  Your love and encouragement are so important to them.  Thank you also for your prayers for the work they are doing.

Faithfully yours,

President John and Sister Jana Mullen



El Niño Update And Outlook For Temperature And Precipitation

During Winter 2015-16 In US

What is the current forecast for El Niño conditions this winter?

On September 10, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated its forecasts for the current El Niño and the coming winter.  CPC now estimates that

El Niño conditions have a 95% chance of continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

Named El Niño Eggplant by Decoded Science,

this promises to be the most significant El Niño since at least 1998.*

The implications for weather across the US and farther are immense.

 How Will El Niño Affect The Weather In the Continental US?

The updated CPC forecast shows a typical El Niño effect over the continental United States: Warmer than normal across the north; Cooler than normal across the south.

 Precipitation is expected to be enhanced over the south, including parched California. *According to the National Climatic Data Center, during the El Nino of 1997-98, California had its fifth wettest January-February in the 103 year record up to that time.

Is El Niño And Its Effects A Done Deal?

El Niño Eggplant is with us and getting stronger. All forecasts call for it to peak in mid-winter.  However, powerful countervailing forces are at work that could alter the precipitation and temperature patterns that normally accompany El Niño.

In particular, the pool of much-warmer-than-normal water over the northwest Pacific Ocean (affectionately known by meteorologists as ‘the ‘blob’) tends to create warm and dry conditions over the west coast and is thought to be a major contributor to the California drought. The weather this summer seems to be a see-saw between the two distinct patterns induced by El Niño and the blob.

Forecasters are fairly certain that the El Niño correlation with

precipitation across the southern US will hold this winter.